Normally I would wait before writing about my straw poll, in order not to pre-empt the answers, but in this instance I wanted to give and initial feedback to you all on the results so far and highlight a conversation that I had today.
If you have not yet answered the poll here it is:
To the question "How do you think that your business will do in the next 6 months?" 44% of respondents think that things will stay the same and an amazing 44% believe that things will get better - leaving only 12% reckoning it will get worse.
OK, so I do not want to be called a doom-sayer, but to all you guys who believe that "things are going to get better" (to misquote D:Ream) I want to share with you a discussion I had over lunch today with a friend of mine, the boss of a leading private equity house...and he is concerned about the economy.
If you have not yet answered the poll here it is:
To the question "How do you think that your business will do in the next 6 months?" 44% of respondents think that things will stay the same and an amazing 44% believe that things will get better - leaving only 12% reckoning it will get worse.
OK, so I do not want to be called a doom-sayer, but to all you guys who believe that "things are going to get better" (to misquote D:Ream) I want to share with you a discussion I had over lunch today with a friend of mine, the boss of a leading private equity house...and he is concerned about the economy.
As background, these guys have invested over £5 billion and their companies have combined sales are nearly £7.5 billion. The spread of sectors and territories is all encompassing. They get monthly (if not daily) performance feeds from their investments and they are looking to spend more money on buying businesses with a war chest of cash that is beyond most of people's comprehension. But, and here is the nub of it, he says we are living in unprecedented times - "In 2007/08 we were looking at banks going bust, financial institutions disappearing and cash running dry. Today we are discussing countries going bankrupt - Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy". These guys are now modelling all their investments on three scenarios...status quo, bad and WORST CASE - and they want to know what the "real impact" of worst case is actually like - not for an intellectual exercise but to understand what it does to their balance sheet and to see if the businesses they are invested in can survive!
What does that mean for you and me and what lessons can we learn from it?
Well the first is to stay optimistic - optimism drives confidence, which gets us through to "the other side".
Second plan for the worst - make sure you know what the critical drivers are in your business and what the key indicators of performance are and take decisions based on the results of these, my MD in France used to say to me "Facts Michael, just tell me the facts".
Third, carry on with life - you and I can not effect the outcome of the Euro-zone crisis, we have little influence on the government and Bank of England's economic policy, but we can run our businesses, so concentrate on what you are good at, what you know and what you can influence.
If we all do these things in our businesses then hopefully the 88% of respondents will be right and things will at least stay the same and hopefully get better.
